Shift piasa, chop, chop, chop, flee, heal, shift... Everything was going marvellous... Mob was on pretty hurt and I had about 250 mana left to finish him off.
I flee like a coward...
unshift...
heal... loss con... ok, no biggie...
heal... back to full health
shapeshift piasa... body shudders nothing happens...
shapeshift piasa... body shudders nothing happens...
END OF RUN (No Mana left to shift)...
So I, recalled, complained about lost con etc... Get the usual responses... insert clink joke... etc. Ok, it happens to all of us...
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I’ve started to get superstitious about shifting... because I’ve noticed (and I only wish I had been keeping stats)... when the first shift whiffs (a whift)... it’s about 50/50 that the second one whiffs also.
Now I know there is probably nothing in the code that causes that... but it all comes back to that silly supposedly “random†number generator again! Does it use the time by any chance to generate the number? There seems to be no lag associated when I “whift†so often I just press enter to try to shift again straight away... all too often I whift again.
Ok that’s just silly you say... well is it? I recall days, when an extraordinary about of newbie’s roll there stats. There are both good and bad days with lost con... and we would mainly notice the bad. It’s also often said that if you are rolling bad, wait a few minutes and try again... Why is it do you think that we have this PERCEPTION that there isn’t much variance on average in the random numbers over a given period? Especially when Jake comes out and says, every one complains about lost con, every couple of years when we go through that real bad patch.
Why is it, whiffs so often come in twos? I have little doubt that the numbers are random... but they seem to be clumped... that is to say... [b:2gitm9st]there seems to be a high percentage chance that two random numbers in succession will not have much variance.[/b:2gitm9st]
Such a thing could happen, if the random number generator uses the time as a seed or a part of the equation, it’s quite possible then that the interval could play a part... but that’s just hearsay I guess.
But you all know what I’m saying... why the heck is there patterns in our random numbers!
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So I have 3 ideas that (nice

• Make the chances of a second whiff casting spells lower, or a magic user skill...
• Make whifting a shift half the mana cost like losing con... a whift is full price currently.
• In the situation in a group when the tank says lite me, and 5 people do at once... why can’t you make it so everyone doesn’t lose mana for trying to be nice...

I don't think our perception is wrong when we perceive lost con happens to much, or out of average in a day... even though mathematically we can't prove it's pattern. I thinking it's the timing of when it happens that adds to this... and evening the lost con out, by reducing chances of second consecutive whiffs could end the problem.
I guess one is far more likely to remember a day where they loose con twice in a row 3 times, than the day they loose it 10 times, but never consecutive.