Tri token reroll stats

[Zing]

Yes, I'm at the point where I'm wasting a lot of playing time collecting tokens and trashing decent playable stats trying to win the lottery. :)

I didn't track my first few re-rolls, but I have for the last 26 rolls.
Range 40 to 90 hits=26

tot for roll____hits____desc______ range___freq
40 to 49_____ 0____Horrible______ 10____ 0.00
53 thru 56____2____sad to bad_____ 4____0.08
57 thru 76___22____usual roll______20___ 0.85
77 thru 80____2____playable/good___4____0.08
81 thru 90____0____fantastic/rare___10____0.00

My 26 re-rolls is too small a sample to get a picture of the outside area of the range.

If you are interested and have kept track of a block of tri-token re-rolls (all rolls, not selected ones) I'd like to add them to my numbers.
thanks, Zing

send to pmarting@comcast.net

[Daisy]

I have a theory about how rerolls are calculated, I'd be interested to know if (a) I'm right (b) what people think:

4d6 are rolled, the best 3d6 are chosen, this is done 5 times, the outcomes are then ordered as per stat ordering.

This leads to a range 3-18
(I know I haven't accounted for Strength /?? addition in this)

Possibility ranges for the total stat score (add all stats together):
15 - 58 -> 0.82%
57 - 60 -> 8.32%
61 - 65 -> 25.59%
66 - 70 -> 36.28%
71 - 75 -> 21.78%
76 - 80 -> 5.20%
81 - 90 -> 0.41% (i.e. one in 243 rolls have total score 81 or better)

The most common roll total would be 66 with 95.30% of rolls in the range 57 to 77

Let me know what you think.

Daisy

[12345]

It's not really a secret that Daisy is exactly right. The only other addition would be that if an oct is used, or you are getting your stats for the first time, any total with a result of 9 or lower causes the entire group to be discarded and rolled again.

[Zing]

Thanks for providing more information. I think many players wouldn't re-roll as much if they understood the numbers better.

It is interesting to see how rare a really good roll (80+) would be. Since I'm playing with a 77, and it is quite playable, it truly effects my strategy for improvement.

I had planned on re-rolling whenever I got 10 tokens. This was because I was guessing that 76+ roll would usually happen in a ten roll sequence. This was roughly my experience since I had rolled a 75 and a 77 in 26 rolls. And eventually I'd hit a really great roll.

However, with a good playable 77, (the distribution was ok) I would be shooting for an 80+ roll to be worth the aggravation and risk or re-rolling. I think these numbers mean that I'd need to have 20+ tokens on hand to have a reasonable chance of keeping stats like I already have and would need to roll hundreds to have a decent shot at my goal of 80+ stats.

My 17 17 17 14 12 = 77 (CL/MA) is looking pretty good.

Though I'd like an 18 or two so maybe...

Zing

[Leaf]

Well I have "unplayable" stats or been told that. However I believe its
something that I can work with.

18/69 10 13 16 16 = 73 (Wa/Mo/Cl/Dr)

Now this isn't the greatest, but I believe it's something that a Tank can
get ac-11 with the right eq and such.

It's all about how some ppl play the game, and what eq is needed.

[seshi]

[quote="Zing":2yx40fnd]Thanks for providing more information. I think many players wouldn't re-roll as much if they understood the numbers better.
Zing[/quote:2yx40fnd]

I agree Zing. I had stats 18/53 12 12 17 15 (74) for Wa/Ba/Cl/Mo. Everyone I asked said I needed better stats so with 10 tris and 3 I octs rerolled. Not one roll was as good as this and I had to play with really bad stats until I found some more tris. I still have worse stats than I started with - 18/22 10 11 16 15 (70). The oct rolls were barely any better. In a total of 22 rolls (19 tris and 3 octs) none were even as good as I started with. If I'd known the statistics quoted by daisy I would have stuck with the playable, but not wonderful stats, I already had.
Brin

[blackmore]

t4bwe;Many players who have played for years are willing to roll for months to get insane stats, and they seem to think that's what everyone should do too. In the end, if you're just learning the game, you're missing out on a lot of fun by staying on valk until you get the stats that some people say you should have. There's nothing wrong with playing with mediocre stats and waiting until you're bigger to get hexes. I'd hate to see newbies quit because they're bored with the game when they can't get the 84 total that people claim they need.

[dt]

While Blackmore makes a decent point, I'd counter with the fact that such 'true' newbies don't have the necessary equipment to make up for bad stats.... we've all seen the veterans gossip stats that truly only an insane person would try to roll (guilty as charged) but in doing so, they only give exactly what the newbies want to know. Most of a time a newbie gossiping his/her stats and just having bad dex is enough to get many peeps tossing mad stats. BM also makes the point that newbies missing out on alot of fun because they stick themselves in re-roll hell but most newbies not gonna have much fun trying to explore with them being unable to solo. Could make another point or 2 but blasted Van doesn't allow botting so that's all for now

[Daisy]

I pleased you found my stats helpful, I ought to say that I'm not a mathematician (I'm an Engineer actually) and I'm quite prepared for someone to prove my probability calculations incorrect, I found the calculations quite complex, but I did write a program to repeatedly reroll stats and note results as a sanity check (this I found very simple) and on 50,000 rolls it tied up quite nicely.
I would however be facinated if some Mathematics guru out there could detail what the right probability equation should look like.

That said part of my reason for posting was to try and bring some sanity to conversations like the below (names removed):

AAA gossips 'I got 3 tokens left should I reroll'
BBB gossips 'reroll'
CCC gossips 'what are your stats'
BBB gossips 'reroll anyway'
AAA gossips ' 17 18 14 15 12 what do you think'

(Total 78 - in my view playable for a M/W/C/T and a one in 20ish or better roll)

DDD gossips 'not bad but reroll anyway'
EEE gossips ' not good either'
FFF gossips 'g'luck '
CCC gossips ' playable stick with them til you've got more tokens'
BBB gossips 'you need to reroll good luck'
AAA gossips 'Thanks guys'
...

AAA gossips 'wtb tri tokens'

This is the sort of conversation I'm sure you've all seen many many times, I know I have and what it amounts to is a newbie who has good stats, playable until 4x20 being egged on by more experienced players who ought to know better to waste 'good' stats chasing the 'keeper' stats that are possible with dedicated token chasing.
Its no wonder that the game has changed from an adventure mud with a strong quest extension to a token chase for everyone below 4x20 and some above this level looking for tokens for alt characters.


The current going rates for tokens seems to be:
Tri 50k
Hex 100k
Oct 150k
but I've seen them sold for (and have sold them for) much much more ... my record is selling a hex and 3 tris for 500k.

Searching for, finding and using tokens to reroll stats is a very innovative slant on the MUD, one I like, but its been whipped up to a ridiculous frenzy by players who egg newbies on to chase better stats, and players who will spend a week chasing tokens and rerolling to get stats with one more strength, rather than find a piece of equipment that would do the same, along the way sweeping newbie areas clean of tokens so that newbies can't find them.

Perhaps this frenzy would be better calmed down? Saying that I'm guilty of searching for tokens to sell for money, and buying tokens cheaply for resale as a group (free market economy and all that), and of course I rerolled til I got my 1 in 400 roll (on 120th roll) of 18/80 18 17 17 14 as a M/W/C/T ... yes it a boast, I'm proud, but was it a waste of time chasing down 120 token to do that? perhaps, but it certainly gave me a buzz when I got them! then again maybe I'm just sad? (see paragraph one )


Lots of Love

Daisy

[12345]

It would actually be more helpful I think if folks knew the odds of getting a specific stat.

For instance, in the conversation you mentioned, as a mana type, the stats of interest are pretty much int and wis. Most mana types would want 18 int and 17 wis as a minimum. As a mage prime, wis will always be 3rd stat unless you're rolling a mage/cleric or mage/druid. If you want to save some time rolling, you can always play a mage/cleric/warrior/thief, get the easy 2x18 or 18/17 stats and move on. If you play a mage/warrior, you're shooting for 16+ wis... which will be a few rolls, especially if you're shooting for percent strength with it. If you're looking to solo a lot, and want 15+ dex with it... be prepared to spend a month collecting tokens and rolling.

I think where a lot of folks get hung up is thinking that 10 tokens is a lot, and it's really not. Last time I was rolling, I was gathering and rolling 8 tokens a day. It took me more than a month to get stats I liked, and I was only rolling for 18 18 17... and I was playing almost every day at the time.

[Daisy]

Zing,

the algorithm I wrote was a calculation of total stat value, now I'm a geek but there is a limit, (I'm not working out %chances of your 3rd stat being 15 or better etc.), I can post my full calculation results if you want to see them but they're rather long so I'll only do that if requested.

Note that since my last post someone I work with has redone the calculation from scratch and come up with a slightly different result posted below, its up to you which you believe, but my experience favours my results.

I'm not going to work on this or worry much about this any more if you want to I would be very interested to read it.

15 - 40 -> 0.81%
41 - 50 -> 4.89%
51 - 60 -> 39.72%
61 - 65 -> 29.66%
66 - 70 -> 18.73%
71 - 75 -> 6.04%
76 - 80 -> 0.85%
81 - 85 -> 0.04%
86 - 90 -> 0.0002%

(In these results the chances of getting 80 are better slip from 1 in 423 in my calculation to 1 in 1247 with these ..... hmmmmm)

The most common roll total would be 62 with 95.18% of rolls in the range 49 to 73 (2.58% below 49 2.25% above 73)

Total possible outcomes : 3,656,158,440,062,980

Note there is only one way of getting 15 as all of 20 dice must roll 1 to get 15, there are many more ways to get 90 as you can afford to drop any one die in each 4 to get 5 lots of 18.

Lots of Love,

Daisy

[13]

you can postulate all you want, but in the end you just have to shut up and reroll and no amount of algorithm-arguing will make it easier. btw those ma/wa stats suck, he rolls str second and doesnt even have %, plus 12 con..
keep goin, and gl

[Leaf]

[quote="13":2l47ekrk]you can postulate all you want, but in the end you just have to shut up and reroll and no amount of algorithm-arguing will make it easier. btw those ma/wa stats suck, he rolls str second and doesnt even have %, plus 12 con..
keep goin, and gl [/quote:2l47ekrk]

Can always count on AA to post some mean response

I believe he rolled some PIMP stats ...

"and of course I rerolled til I got my 1 in 400 roll (on 120th roll) of 18/80 18 17 17 14 as a M/W/C/T ... yes it a boast, I'm proud, but was it a waste of time chasing down 120 token to do that? perhaps, but it certainly gave me a buzz when I got them! then again maybe I'm just sad? (see paragraph one )"

[12345]

I'm not a math guru... but I find brute force works well.

Some simple probability rules for you:
Rolling 18 on 3d6 = 1:6x6x6 = 1:216 rolls, about 0.46%
So 1 every 216 stats.

Sloth uses 4 dice, which ups the odds some:
Rolling 18 on 4d6 = 21:6x6x6x6 = 21:1296 rolls, about 1.62%
So about 1 every 61.7 stats.

21 you ask? You have to manually count them:
1666 6166 6616 6661
2666 6266 6626 6662
3666 6366 6636 6663
4666 6466 6646 6664
5666 6566 6656 6665
6666

------------------------------
Editted to remove silly calculations. Icefyre has a better method.

[Icefyre]

Someone asked "What are the REAL chances of winning the stat lottery?"

Ok, this is all done assuming the reroller uses 4d6, dropping worst d6.

Chances of getting 1 18's = 4.63% (1 in 21.6)
Chances of getting 2 18's = 0.17% (1 in 583)
Chances of getting 3 18's = 0.0047% (1 in 21,000)

And you wonder why it's called reroll hell, trying to roll 3X18's to get a %str on your third stat.


When using oct's, it throws out a lot of bad possibilities (only 135 possible outcomes instead of 216 for a 3d6 roll).

Chances of getting 1 18's = 7.41% (1 in 13.5)
Chances of getting 2 18's = 0.44% (1 in 228)
Chances of getting 3 18's = 0.0195% (1 in 5125)

Now, I look at my 2x40 thief/caster with 2 18's and a 17 str? for the biggest char improvement...dropping 3-5 str slots that' get me to -7 or -8 ac with full damage.
BUT, i'm going to save up a whole hell of a lot of tokens before it try.


So, last conclusion: oct's at 150k are a steal when your chances are 4X better at getting your dream stats.