Reroll Hell

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Reroll Hell

Postby Driven » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:57 pm

I would have appreciated this before I entered reroll hell to gain some expectations / perspective on what would happen. Others, feel free to post your roll history. Some observations:

- average hex roll is below tri token roll
- tri tokens excellent for recovering from hex rolls (average total ~70), though max is 74.
- variance on hexes is HUGE... ranges from 50's to 70's... all over the map.
- average hex/oct roll: 66
- approximate basic odds: single 18 is 1/7 rolls, double 18 is 1/49
- final roll not even 2x18, so 18's not the end-all-be-all.
- final roll 16 16 17 17 18 (84 total)

From talking with others, hitting 84 total in 132 rolls is somewhat atypical -- usually this takes 300+ rolls.

Cheers! -driven

1. Str: 11[11], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 14[14], Con: 17[17] (69[69])
2. Str: 12[12], Int: 7[7], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 13[13], Con: 18[18] (66[66])
3. Str: 11[11], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 12[12], Con: 16[16] (66[66])
4. Str: 14[14], Int: 14[14], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 15[15], Con: 17[17] (75[75])
5. Str: 10[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 12[12], Con: 17[17] (65[65])
6. Str: 12[12], Int: 8[8], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 13[13], Con: 18[18] (64[64])
7. Str: 14[14], Int: 14[14], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 15[15], Con: 17[17] (76[76])
8. Str: 12[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 12[12], Con: 14[14] (62[62])
9. Str: 9[9], Int: 8[8], Wis: 11[11], Dex: 10[10], Con: 12[12] (50[50])
10. Str: 10[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 11[11], Con: 15[15] (56[56])
11. Str: 12[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 12[12], Con: 13[13] (61[61])
12. Str: 12[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 13[13], Con: 17[17] (66[66])
13. Str: 11[11], Int: 6[6], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 12[12], Con: 14[14] (56[56])
14. Str: 13[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 13[13], Con: 17[17] (70[70])
15. Str: 12[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 15[15], Con: 16[16] (68[68])
16. Str: 10[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 11[11], Con: 16[16] (60[60])
17. Str: 12[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 15[15], Con: 18[18] (72[72])
18. Str: 11[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 12[12], Con: 13[13] (57[57])
19. Str: 12[12], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 13[13], Con: 18[18] (70[70])
20. Str: 13[13], Int: 8[8], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 13[13], Con: 15[15] (63[63])
21. Str: 13[13], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 13[13], Con: 15[15] (64[64])
22. Str: 11[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 11[11], Con: 15[15] (58[58])
23. Str: 9[9], Int: 7[7], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 10[10], Con: 17[17] (59[59])
24. Str: 13[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 14[14], Con: 15[15] (68[68])
25. Str: 14[14], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 14[14], Con: 16[16] (71[71])
26. Str: 13[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 13[13], Con: 17[17] (70[70])
27. Str: 11[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 11[11], Con: 15[15] (62[62])
28. Str: 12[10], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 12[10], Con: 18[18] (66[62])
29. Str: 13[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[15], Con: 16[16] (71[67])
30. Str: 15[13], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 16[14], Con: 17[17] (75[71])
31. Str: 17[15], Int: 11[11], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[15], Con: 16[16] (76[72])
32. Str: 13[11], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 15[12], Con: 17[17] (68[63])
33. Str: 13[11], Int: 11[11], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 15[15] (71[66])
34. Str: 16[14], Int: 13[13], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (79[74])
35. Str: 12[10], Int: 13[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 14[13], Con: 14[14] (67[60])
36. Str: 11[9], Int: 10[6], Wis: 11[11], Dex: 11[10], Con: 11[11] (54[47])
37. Str: 14[12], Int: 16[12], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 14[13], Con: 18[18] (76[69])
38. Str: 15[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 17[14], Con: 14[14] (72[67])
39. Str: 14[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (74[69])
40. Str: 13[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[13], Dex: 14[12], Con: 15[15] (67[62])
41. Str: 12[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 16[13], Con: 13[13] (64[59])
42. Str: 13[11], Int: 8[8], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (70[65])
43. Str: 12[10], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 16[13], Con: 18[18] (71[66])
44. Str: 16[14], Int: 14[14], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (81[76]) [OCT]
45. Str: 12[10], Int: 9[9], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 15[12], Con: 17[17] (66[61])
46. Str: 14[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 15[15] (70[65])
47. Str: 9[7], Int: 7[7], Wis: 9[9], Dex: 12[9], Con: 15[15] (52[47])
48. Str: 13[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 15[12], Con: 15[15] (67[62])
49. Str: 10[8], Int: 7[7], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 14[11], Con: 14[14] (59[54])
50. Str: 15[13], Int: 9[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (71[66])
51. Str: 12[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 14[11], Con: 17[17] (66[61])
52. Str: 16[14], Int: 13[13], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 16[16] (77[72])
53. Str: 15[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 16[16] (76[71])
54. Str: 13[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (72[67])
55. Str: 12[10], Int: 9[9], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 15[12], Con: 14[14] (63[58])
56. Str: 15[13], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (74[69])
57. Str: 14[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 15[15] (68[63])
58. Str: 14[12], Int: 5[5], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (68[63])
59. Str: 15[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (77[72]) [OCT]
60. Str: 12[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 15[12], Con: 14[14] (64[59]) [OCT]
61. Str: 14[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 18[18] (71[66])
62. Str: 16[14], Int: 6[6], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (72[67])
63. Str: 12[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (70[65])
64. Str: 12[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 15[12], Con: 15[15] (65[60])
65. Str: 13[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 14[11], Con: 13[13] (62[57])
66. Str: 13[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (70[65])
67. Str: 16[14], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 18[18] (76[71]) [OCT]
68. Str: 15[13], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (72[67]) [OCT]
69. Str: 13[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 16[16] (69[64])
70. Str: 15[13], Int: 10[10], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[16], Con: 17[17] (76[72])
71. Str: 16[14], Int: 13[13], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[16], Con: 18[18] (82[78])
72. Str: 15[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (76[71])
73. Str: 14[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (70[65]) [OCT]
74. Str: 14[12], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 16[13], Con: 15[15] (72[67]) [OCT]
75. Str: 11[9], Int: 8[8], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 13[10], Con: 16[16] (64[59]) [OCT]
76. Str: 13[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 15[12], Con: 13[13] (62[57]) [OCT]
77. Str: 14[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 18[18] (77[72])
78. Str: 16[14], Int: 6[6], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (72[67])
79. Str: 16[14], Int: 11[11], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (76[71])
80. Str: 12[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (68[63])
81. Str: 13[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 18[18], Dex: 18[16], Con: 18[18] (76[72])
82. Str: 15[13], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (76[71])
83. Str: 14[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 16[13], Con: 18[18] (75[70])
84. Str: 15[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 16[16] (74[69])
85. Str: 16[14], Int: 11[11], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (79[74])
86. Str: 17[15], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (76[71])
87. Str: 15[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 16[13], Con: 18[18] (76[71])
88. Str: 14[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 16[16] (72[67])
89. Str: 14[13], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[14], Con: 18[18] (73[68])
90. Str: 14[13], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[14], Con: 17[17] (76[71])
91. Str: 12[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[13], Con: 16[16] (70[65])
92. Str: 13[12], Int: 12[12], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 17[13], Con: 15[15] (71[66])
93. Str: 11[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 13[10], Con: 18[18] (63[59])
94. Str: 13[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (72[68])
95. Str: 14[13], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (75[71])
96. Str: 11[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 14[11], Con: 14[14] (60[56])
97. Str: 14[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (74[70])
98. Str: 14[13], Int: 13[13], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (76[72])
99. Str: 14[13], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 15[15] (72[68])
100. Str: 13[12], Int: 12[12], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 15[12], Con: 14[14] (66[62])
101. Str: 13[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 16[16] (70[66]) [OCT]
102. Str: 16[15], Int: 14[14], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[16], Con: 18[18] (83[80])
103. Str: 13[12], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[14], Con: 17[17] (71[66])
104. Str: 13[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[16], Con: 16[16] (72[69])
105. Str: 13[12], Int: 11[11], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 18[14], Con: 15[15] (71[66])
106. Str: 11[10], Int: 7[7], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 15[11], Con: 14[14] (60[55])
107. Str: 10[9], Int: 7[7], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 15[11], Con: 14[14] (60[55])
108. Str: 11[10], Int: 9[9], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 18[14], Con: 16[16] (68[63])
109. Str: 14[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (78[74])
110. Str: 13[12], Int: 7[7], Wis: 18[18], Dex: 18[17], Con: 18[18] (74[72])
111. Str: 11[10], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 14[10], Con: 18[18] (68[63])
112. Str: 12[11], Int: 11[11], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 15[12], Con: 15[15] (68[64])
113. Str: 16[15], Int: 14[14], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (81[77])
114. Str: 15[14], Int: 10[10], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (76[72])
115. Str: 13[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (73[69])
116. Str: 11[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (68[64])
117. Str: 14[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 18[15], Con: 16[16] (75[71])
118. Str: 14[13], Int: 12[12], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (78[74])
119. Str: 13[12], Int: 9[9], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 18[18] (74[70])
120. Str: 12[11], Int: 9[9], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 14[11], Con: 16[16] (66[62])
121. Str: 14[13], Int: 11[11], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (76[72])
122. Str: 12[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (72[68])
123. Str: 10[9], Int: 8[8], Wis: 15[15], Dex: 17[14], Con: 15[15] (65[61])
124. Str: 15[14], Int: 12[12], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (78[74])
125. Str: 12[11], Int: 10[10], Wis: 13[13], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (68[64])
126. Str: 13[12], Int: 7[7], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 17[14], Con: 18[18] (71[67])
127. Str: 11[10], Int: 6[6], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 16[13], Con: 17[17] (64[60])
128. Str: 11[10], Int: 8[8], Wis: 14[14], Dex: 17[14], Con: 17[17] (67[63])
129. Str: 13[12], Int: 10[10], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 15[12], Con: 14[14] (64[60])
130. Str: 10[9], Int: 8[8], Wis: 12[12], Dex: 14[11], Con: 18[18] (62[58])
131. Str: 15[14], Int: 12[12], Wis: 16[16], Dex: 18[15], Con: 17[17] (78[74])
132. Str: 17[16], Int: 16[16], Wis: 17[17], Dex: 18[17], Con: 18[18] (86[84])
Driven
 
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Re: Reroll Hell

Postby Teron » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:36 am

The only stat advice about hexes you need is that you can't rely on stats.

The randomness is so great that:
- you can get your first and only 82 in 300 tokens
- you can get 82 in 1-3 tokens (I've recently got one in 3 on an alt, though I wasn't picky)
- sometimes 500 tokens isn't enough.

In my experience, 30 tokens is enough to get playable 74+. Stats above kind of confirm it.
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Re: Reroll Hell

Postby Gorka » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:47 am

It's important to realize that rolling dices produces non-linear results.

If you roll a 1d70, 100,000 times, of course you will get an average 70, however you will get outliers that will be many times the average. 500/100000 times, it will take more than 3 times the average (210 rolls) to roll the 70. 12500/100000 times, it will take more than 2 times the average (140 rolls) to roll the 70. It's actually possible to NEVER roll the 70... but unlikely. It follows the law of diminishing returns... in the sense that if you were to keep rolling for an 85, you would probably need so many tokens, it's not worth it, and it's better to buy the stat later.

I forget what I used to tell people when I used to sell bulk tokens, but it was something like expect an 80 in 100 rolls. Buying octs is a waste of time, simply because there supply is crap, but don't tell Taron, he's making me rich.

People have different target totals, I like 84. Gorka has 84, there was one player I forget the name got an 86 or 87 in like 1 roll... Suna has a good roll I believe.

To buy a stat point as an avatar is 10 bill xp. If your a moderate to heavy player 10bill is a fairly normal total of xp for a weeks work. So the calculation needs to be... is getting one stat point higher... going to happen in running one week of tokens. In most cases I think tokens are better than buying stats... up to the point of rolling an 82-84.

Congrats on your stats, keepers for sure, and you've probably been a bit lucky to get them in only that many rolls.

No doubt you got your stats with one of my lucky tokens, I bless all my tokens in cat urine before I list them on auction... secret recipe handed down from gorkling to gorkling over the ages.
Gimme a G! Gimme a ORKA!
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Re: Reroll Hell

Postby Teron » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:16 pm

You are forgetting the gold cost of a stat - 10mil.

If you are buying tokens to roll from 80 to 85, then you better get 85 in 714 tokens, or it isn't worth it. The chance of that is small. I prefer to get 82, ideally with 18 dex.

Getting 10bil exp is easy at 9x40, but getting gold just eats your soul,if you are going to farm 1-3mil mobs solo for 10 hours. Except, if it is your first char, you need to get those 50mil gold or 714 tokens at 3x40, which would take months to get.
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